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Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (RECPROUSM156N)

Observations

Dec 2025: 0.80
Updated: Feb 2, 2026 7:01 AM CST
Dec 2025:  0.80  
Nov 2025:  0.62  
Oct 2025:  0.86  
Sep 2025:  0.82  
Aug 2025:  0.88  

Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

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Notes

Title Release Dates
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 2012-09-04 2026-02-02
 
Source    
Chauvet, Marcelle 2012-09-04 2019-06-30
Piger, Jeremy Max 2012-09-04 2019-06-30
Chauvet, Marcelle 2019-07-01 2026-02-02
Piger, Jeremy Max 2019-07-01 2026-02-02
 
Release    
U.S. Recession Probabilities 2012-09-04 2026-02-02
 
Units    
Percent 2012-09-04 2026-02-02
 
Frequency    
Monthly 2012-09-04 2026-02-02
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Not Seasonally Adjusted 2012-09-04 2026-02-02
 
Notes    
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.
(http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf)

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm.

2012-09-04 2019-06-30
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A" class="breakable" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf">A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ed/8fac87c0c82c3d85ca64ee9846658d8810fb.pdf?_ga=2.168797348.404457612.1561570817-1723670870.1561570817)," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm).

2019-07-01 2026-02-02

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Chauvet, Marcelle Marcelle M. Chauvet and Jeremy Piger Recession Indicators Academic Data Monthly Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted