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> Recession Probabilities
Recession Probabilities
10 Series Revisions
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Last Release Date
Last Observation
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First Observation
Title
Series ID
Frequency
Units
Seas Adj
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, SAHMREALTIME
Units
Release Dates
Observation Period
Percentage Points
2019-09-06 to 2024-10-04
Dec 1959 to Sep 2024
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, RECPROUSM156N
Units
Release Dates
Observation Period
Percent
2012-09-04 to 2019-06-30
Feb 1967 to Apr 2019
Percent
2019-07-01 to 2024-10-01
Jun 1967 to Aug 2024
Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, JHDUSRGDPBR
Units
Release Dates
Observation Period
+1 or 0
2016-01-29 to 2024-07-25
Q4 1967 to Q1 2024
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, SAHMCURRENT
Units
Release Dates
Observation Period
Percentage Points
2019-09-06 to 2024-10-04
Mar 1949 to Sep 2024
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, JHGDPBRINDX
Units
Release Dates
Observation Period
Percentage Points
2016-01-29 to 2024-07-25
Q4 1967 to Q1 2024
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Russia
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, RUSEPUINDXM
Units
Release Dates
Observation Period
Index
2016-02-11 to 2019-10-08
Jan 1994 to Sep 2019
Index
2019-10-09 to 2024-10-01
Jan 1994 to Sep 2024
Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for South Korea (DISCONTINUED)
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, KOREPUINDXM
Units
Release Dates
Observation Period
Index
2016-02-11 to 2019-10-08
Jan 1990 to Dec 2014
Index
2019-10-09 to 2019-10-09
Jan 1990 to Dec 2014
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