Recession Probabilities | ALFRED

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10 Series Revisions

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, SAHMREALTIME
Units Release Dates Observation Period Percentage Points 2019-09-06 to 2026-05-08 Dec 1959 to Apr 2026

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, RECPROUSM156N
Units Release Dates Observation Period Percent 2012-09-04 to 2019-06-30 Feb 1967 to Apr 2019 Percent 2019-07-01 to 2026-05-01 Jun 1967 to Mar 2026

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, JHDUSRGDPBR
Units Release Dates Observation Period +1 or 0 2016-01-29 to 2026-04-30 Q4 1967 to Q4 2025

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, SAHMCURRENT
Units Release Dates Observation Period Percentage Points 2019-09-06 to 2026-05-08 Mar 1949 to Apr 2026

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, JHGDPBRINDX
Units Release Dates Observation Period Percentage Points 2016-01-29 to 2026-04-30 Q4 1967 to Q4 2025

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for Russia Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, RUSEPUINDXM
Units Release Dates Observation Period Index 2016-02-11 to 2019-10-08 Jan 1994 to Sep 2019 Index 2019-10-09 to 2026-05-05 Jan 1994 to Apr 2026

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for South Korea (DISCONTINUED) Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, KOREPUINDXM
Units Release Dates Observation Period Index 2016-02-11 to 2019-10-08 Jan 1990 to Dec 2014 Index 2019-10-09 to 2019-10-09 Jan 1990 to Dec 2014