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Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR)

Observation:

Q2 2018: 0  
Updated: Oct 26, 2018

Units:

+1 or 0,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Quarterly
1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max
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(a) Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator, +1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted (JHDUSRGDPBR)
The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

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(a) Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator, +1 or 0, Not Seasonally Adjusted (JHDUSRGDPBR)
The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
to

Customize data:

Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.
Need help? []

Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:

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Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions
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NOTES
Title Release Dates
Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator 2016-01-29 2018-10-26
 
Source    
Hamilton, James 2016-01-29 2018-10-26
 
Release    
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index 2016-01-29 2018-10-26
 
Units    
+1 or 0 2016-01-29 2018-10-26
 
Frequency    
Quarterly 2016-01-29 2018-10-26
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Not Seasonally Adjusted 2016-01-29 2018-10-26
 
Notes    
The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

2016-01-29 2018-10-26
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Hamilton, James Recession Indicators Gross Domestic Product Quarterly United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted Nation
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