Home > Releases > GDPBased Recession Indicator Index > Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDPbased recession indicator
Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDPbased recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR)
Observation:
Q1 2018: 0 (+ more)Updated: Jul 27, 2018
Q1 2018:  0  
Q4 2017:  0  
Q3 2017:  0  
Q2 2017:  0  
Q1 2017:  0 
Units:
+1 or 0,Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
QuarterlyFor more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recessionindex.
Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDPbased recession indicator
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For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recessionindex.
Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDPbased recession indicator
Customize data:
Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.
You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.
Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.
Need help? []
For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a  b.
Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, , *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses {(,)}, and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, ab, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.
Finally, you can change the units of your new series.
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Title  Release Dates  


Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDPbased recession indicator  20160129  20180727 
Source  


Hamilton, James  20160129  20180727 
Release  


GDPBased Recession Indicator Index  20160129  20180727 
Units  


+1 or 0  20160129  20180727 
Frequency  


Quarterly  20160129  20180727 
Seasonal Adjustment  


Not Seasonally Adjusted  20160129  20180727 
Notes  


The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDPbased recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDPbased recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%. For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recessionindex. 
20160129  20180727 
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