Observations

Aug 2026: -0.07

Updated: Sep 4, 2026 8:39 AM CDT

Units:

Percentage Points,

Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Notes

Title	Release Dates

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator	2019-09-06	2026-09-04

Source

Sahm, Claudia	2019-09-06	2026-09-04

Release

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator	2019-09-06	2026-09-04

Units

Percentage Points	2019-09-06	2026-09-04

Frequency

Monthly	2019-09-06	2026-09-04

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonally Adjusted	2019-09-06	2026-09-04

Notes

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.	2019-09-06	2026-09-04

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT)