Observations

Dec 2025: 0.35

Updated: Jan 9, 2026 8:23 AM CST

Units:

Percentage Points,

Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Notes

Title	Release Dates

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator	2019-09-06	2026-01-09

Source

Sahm, Claudia	2019-09-06	2026-01-09

Release

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator	2019-09-06	2026-01-09

Units

Percentage Points	2019-09-06	2026-01-09

Frequency

Monthly	2019-09-06	2026-01-09

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonally Adjusted	2019-09-06	2026-01-09

Notes

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.	2019-09-06	2026-01-09

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT)