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Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low (FEDTARCTLLR)

Observations

2025-03-19: 2.6
Updated: Mar 19, 2025 2:08 PM CDT
2025-03-19:  2.6  
2024-12-18:  2.8  
2024-09-18:  2.5  
2024-06-12:  2.5  
2024-03-20:  2.5  

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Not Seasonally Adjusted

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Bar 1 - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low Vintage: 2024-12-18
Bar 1
(a) Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (FEDTARCTLLR)
The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

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    Bar 1 - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low Vintage: 2024-12-18
    Bar 2
    (a) Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (FEDTARCTLLR)
    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

    Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
      Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD
    to

    Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

    You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

    Type keywords to search for data

      Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.

      For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a - b.

      Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, -, *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.

      Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

      Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
          Enter date as YYYY-MM-DD

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      Bar 1
      Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low Vintage: 2024-12-18
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      Bar 2
      Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low Vintage: 2025-03-19
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      Notes

      Title Release Dates
      Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Low 2015-12-16 2025-03-19
       
      Source    
      U.S. Federal Open Market Committee 2015-12-16 2025-03-19
      Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2015-12-16 2025-03-19
       
      Release    
      Summary of Economic Projections 2015-12-16 2025-03-19
       
      Units    
      Percent 2015-12-16 2025-03-19
       
      Frequency    
      Not Applicable 2015-12-16 2025-03-19
       
      Seasonal Adjustment    
      Not Seasonally Adjusted 2015-12-16 2025-03-19
       
      Notes    
      The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term.

      The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee.

      Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

      		2015-12-16 2025-03-19

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      Federal Open Market Committee Federal Open Markets Committee Projection Federal St. Louis Fed Rate Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested Not Seasonally Adjusted United States of America

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