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Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP (BBKQCLE)

Observations

Q1 2026: -0.51703
Updated: May 4, 2026 7:33 AM CDT
Q1 2026:  -0.51703  
Q4 2025:  0.18949  
Q3 2025:  0.72190  
Q2 2025:  0.43276  
Q1 2025:  0.02633  

Units:

Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Quarterly

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Notes

Title Release Dates
Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP 2021-04-01 2022-07-04
Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP (DISCONTINUED) 2022-07-05 2022-08-28
Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP 2022-08-29 2026-05-04
 
Source    
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2021-04-01 2022-08-28
Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center 2022-08-29 2026-05-04
 
Release    
Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes 2021-04-01 2026-05-04
 
Units    
Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period 2021-04-01 2026-05-04
 
Frequency    
Quarterly 2021-04-01 2026-05-04
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Seasonally Adjusted 2021-04-01 2026-05-04
 
Notes    
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are a research project of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 500 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMCLE) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMCLE), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

2021-04-01 2022-08-28
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMCLE (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMCLE)), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

2022-08-29 2026-05-04

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Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Indexes Seasonally Adjusted Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America