Observations

Mar 2026: -0.81828

Updated: May 4, 2026 7:32 AM CDT

Mar 2026:	-0.81828
Feb 2026:	-0.66419
Jan 2026:	-0.53944
Dec 2025:	-0.38143
Nov 2025:	-0.12547

Units:

Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period,

Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Notes

Title	Release Dates

Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP	2021-04-01	2022-07-04
Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP (DISCONTINUED)	2022-07-05	2022-08-28
Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP	2022-08-29	2026-05-04

Source

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago	2021-04-01	2022-08-28
Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center	2022-08-29	2026-05-04

Release

Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes	2021-04-01	2026-05-04

Units

Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period	2021-04-01	2026-05-04

Frequency

Monthly	2021-04-01	2026-05-04

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonally Adjusted	2021-04-01	2026-05-04

Notes

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are a research project of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 500 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1	2021-04-01	2022-08-28
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The leading subcomponent of the cycle is expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1	2022-08-29	2026-05-04

Release Tables

Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes

Monthly Indexes

Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP (BBKMCLE)

Notes

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Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Leading Subcomponent of GDP (BBKMCLE)

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