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Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, Low (UNRATECTLLR)

Observations

2025-12-10: 4.0
Updated: Dec 10, 2025 2:09 PM CST
2025-12-10:  4.0  
2025-09-17:  4.0  
2025-06-18:  4.0  
2025-03-19:  3.9  
2024-12-18:  3.9  

Units:

Fourth Quarter, Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Not Applicable

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Notes

Title Release Dates
Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, Low 2009-02-18 2025-12-10
 
Source    
U.S. Federal Open Market Committee 2009-02-18 2025-12-10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2009-02-18 2025-12-10
 
Release    
Summary of Economic Projections 2009-02-18 2025-12-10
 
Units    
Fourth Quarter, Percent 2009-02-18 2025-12-10
 
Frequency    
Not Applicable 2009-02-18 2025-12-10
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 2025-12-10
 
Notes    
The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

2009-02-18 2025-12-10

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Federal Open Market Committee Federal Open Markets Committee Projection Civilian St. Louis Fed Unemployment Board of Governors Rate Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted