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Price Pressures Measure (STLPPM)

Observations

Apr 2026: 0.99917
Updated: Apr 30, 2026 2:00 PM CDT
Apr 2026:  0.99917  
Mar 2026:  0.78064  
Feb 2026:  0.59372  
Jan 2026:  0.54759  
Dec 2025:  0.39496  

Units:

Probability,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

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Notes

Title Release Dates
Price Pressures Measure 2015-11-30 2026-04-30
 
Source    
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2015-11-30 2026-04-30
 
Release    
St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures 2015-11-30 2026-04-30
 
Units    
Probability 2015-11-30 2026-04-30
 
Frequency    
Monthly 2015-11-30 2026-04-30
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Not Seasonally Adjusted 2015-11-30 2026-04-30
 
Notes    
This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will exceed 2.5 percent.

For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see “Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure” (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/)

2015-11-30 2020-02-02
This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will exceed 2.5 percent.

For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see “Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure” (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/).

As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series.

2020-02-03 2021-01-28
This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will exceed 2.5 percent.

For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see “Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure” (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/).

As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series.

As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

2021-01-29 2023-03-30
This series measures the probability that the expected personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month percent changes) over the next 12 months will exceed 2.5 percent.

For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure (https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2015/11/06/introducing-the-st-louis-fed-price-pressures-measure/).

As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued.

As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series.

As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars.

2023-03-31 2026-04-30

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St. Louis Fed Inflation Price Copyrighted: Citation Required Monthly Nation United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted