Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions: 12 month Outlook for the US Economy in Federal Reserve District 7: Chicago (CFSBCOUTLOOK)
NOTES
| Title | Release Dates | |
|
|
||
| Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: 6 to 12 month Outlook for the US Economy | 2016-01-13 | 2020-05-11 |
| Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: 12 month Outlook for the US Economy in Federal Reserve District 7: Chicago | 2020-05-12 | 2022-04-11 |
| Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions: 12 month Outlook for the US Economy in Federal Reserve District 7: Chicago | 2022-04-12 | 2023-11-22 |
| Source | ||
|
|
||
| Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | 2016-01-13 | 2023-11-22 |
| Release | ||
|
|
||
| Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions | 2016-01-13 | 2022-04-11 |
| Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions | 2022-04-12 | 2023-11-22 |
| Units | ||
|
|
||
| Index | 2016-01-13 | 2023-11-22 |
| Frequency | ||
|
|
||
| Monthly | 2016-01-13 | 2023-11-22 |
| Seasonal Adjustment | ||
|
|
||
| Not Seasonally Adjusted | 2016-01-13 | 2023-11-22 |
| Notes | ||
|
|
||
|
February data are collected from January to Early February and are associated with March Beige Book issue. March data are collected from Late February to March and are associated with April Beige Book issue. May data are collected from April to early May and are associated with June Beige Book issue. June data are collected from late May to June and are associated with July Beige Book issue. August data are collected July to early August and are associated with September Beige Book issue. September data are collected from late August to September and are associated with October Beige Book issue. November data are collected from October to early November and are associated with late November or December Beige Book issue. December data are collected from late November to December and are associated with January Beige Book issue. To support its Beige Book efforts, the Chicago Fed gathers information from its business contacts using an online survey system. Respondents are asked to rate various aspects of business conditions along a seven-point scale ranging from “substantially increased” to “substantially decreased.” A series of diffusion indexes summarizing the distribution of responses is then calculated. Respondents’ respective average answers to a question can be interpreted as representing their historical trends or long-run averages. Thus, zero index values indicate that, on balance, activity, hiring, capital spending, or cost pressures are growing at their trend rates or that outlooks are neutral. Positive index values indicate above-average growth (or optimistic outlooks) on balance, and negative values indicate below average growth (or pessimistic outlooks) on balance. For more information, see https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfsbc/index |
2016-01-13 | 2020-05-11 |
|
What is the Survey of Business Conditions? Business contacts in the Seventh Federal Reserve District are asked to rate how various business indicators changed from a month ago along a seven-point scale ranging from "large increase" to "large decrease." A series of diffusion indexes summarizing the distribution of responses is then calculated. How are the indexes constructed? Respondents' answers on the seven-point scale are assigned a numeric value ranging from +3 to –3. Each diffusion index is calculated as the difference between the number of respondents with answers above their respective average responses and the number of respondents with answers below their respective average responses, divided by the total number of respondents. The index is then multiplied by 100 so that it ranges from +100 to −100 and will be +100 if every respondent provides an above-average answer and –100 if every respondent provides a below average answer. Respondents with no prior history of responses are excluded from the calculation. What do the numbers mean? Respondents' respective average answers to a question can be interpreted as representing their historical trends, or long-run averages. Thus, zero index values indicate that, on balance, activity, hiring, capital spending, and cost pressures are growing at their trend rates or that outlooks are neutral. Positive index values indicate above-average growth (or optimistic outlooks) on balance, and negative values indicate below-average growth (or pessimistic outlooks) on balance. Beginning with the May 12, 2020, release, the CFSBC moved to a monthly release schedule. This release, with data for April 2020, now contains estimated monthly historical values for the CFSBC indexes, as will all future releases. For additional information on how the survey and indexes changed, see the CFSBC FAQs available here (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/cfsbc/index). |
2020-05-12 | 2022-04-11 |
|
What is the Survey of Economic Conditions? Contacts located in the Seventh Federal Reserve District are asked to rate various aspects of economic conditions along a seven-point scale ranging from "large increase" to "large decrease." A series of diffusion indexes summarizing the distribution of responses is then calculated. How are the indexes constructed? Respondents' answers on the seven-point scale are assigned a numeric value ranging from +3 to –3. Each diffusion index is calculated as the difference between the number of respondents with answers above their respective average responses and the number of respondents with answers below their respective average responses, divided by the total number of respondents. The index is then multiplied by 100 so that it ranges from +100 to −100 and will be +100 if every respondent provides an above-average answer and –100 if every respondent provides a below-average answer. Respondents with no prior history of responses are excluded from the calculation. What do the numbers mean? Respondents' respective average answers to a question can be interpreted as representing their historical trends, or long-run averages. Thus, zero index values indicate, on balance, average growth (or a neutral outlook) for activity, hiring, capital spending, and cost pressures. Positive index values indicate above-average growth (or an optimistic outlook) on balance, and negative values indicate below-average growth (or a pessimistic outlook) on balance. Beginning with the May 12, 2020 release, the CFSEC moved to a monthly release schedule. This release, with data for April 2020, now contains estimated monthly historical values for the CFSEC indexes, as will all future releases. For additional information on how the survey and indexes changed, see the CFSEC FAQs available here (https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-data). Prior to April 2022, the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions was named the Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions (CFSBC). The name change was made to better represent the survey’s aim and base of respondents. The goal of the survey is to assess the state of the economy in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. Moreover, since the beginning of the survey, it was been filled out by both business and nonbusiness contacts. |
2022-04-12 | 2023-11-22 |
RELATED CONTENT
Related Resources
Related Categories
Chicago
Federal Reserve Districts
U.S. Regional Data
Business
Productivity & Costs
Population, Employment, & Labor Markets