ALFRED Graph | ALFRED | St. Louis Fed

Observations

Q4 2027: 4.20862

Updated: Aug 3, 2020 2:58 PM CDT

Q4 2027:	4.20862
Q3 2027:	4.21499
Q2 2027:	4.22120
Q1 2027:	4.22724
Q4 2026:	4.23310

Units:

Percent,

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Quarterly

Notes

Title	Release Dates

Natural Rate of Unemployment	2011-02-02	2012-01-30
Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)	2012-01-31	2021-06-30
Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment	2021-07-01	2025-01-17

Source

U.S. Congressional Budget Office	2011-02-02	2025-01-17

Release

Budget and Economic Outlook	2011-02-02	2025-01-17

Units

Percent	2011-02-02	2025-01-17

Frequency

Quarterly	2011-02-02	2025-01-17

Seasonal Adjustment

Not Seasonally Adjusted	2011-02-02	2025-01-17

Notes

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.	2012-01-31	2021-06-30
Starting with the July, 2021 report: An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57218), this series was renamed from "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)" to "Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment". The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.	2021-07-01	2025-01-17