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Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median (UNRATEMDLR)

Observations

2026-03-18: 4.2
Updated: Mar 18, 2026 2:09 PM CDT
2026-03-18:  4.2  
2025-12-10:  4.2  
2025-09-17:  4.2  
2025-06-18:  4.2  
2025-03-19:  4.2  

Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Not Applicable

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Notes

Title Release Dates
Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median 2015-12-16 2026-03-18
 
Source    
U.S. Federal Open Market Committee 2015-12-16 2026-03-18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2015-12-16 2026-03-18
 
Release    
Summary of Economic Projections 2015-12-16 2026-03-18
 
Units    
Percent 2015-12-16 2026-03-18
 
Frequency    
Not Applicable 2015-12-16 2026-03-18
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Not Seasonally Adjusted 2015-12-16 2026-03-18
 
Notes    
The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term.

Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections.

Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

2015-12-16 2026-03-18

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Federal Open Market Committee Federal Open Markets Committee Projection Civilian Median Unemployment St. Louis Fed Rate Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America Not Seasonally Adjusted