Observations

Jul 2026: -0.03

Updated: Aug 7, 2026 8:42 AM CDT

Units:

Percentage Points,

Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly

Notes

Title	Release Dates

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator	2019-09-06	2026-08-07

Source

Sahm, Claudia	2019-09-06	2026-08-07

Release

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator	2019-09-06	2026-08-07

Units

Percentage Points	2019-09-06	2026-08-07

Frequency

Monthly	2019-09-06	2026-08-07

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonally Adjusted	2019-09-06	2026-08-07

Notes

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.	2019-09-06	2026-08-07

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)