Home > Releases > Budget and Economic Outlook > Natural Rate of Unemployment (LongTerm)
Natural Rate of Unemployment (LongTerm) (NROU)
Observation:
Q4 2027: 4.65 (+ more)Updated: Aug 8, 2017
Q4 2027:  4.65  
Q3 2027:  4.66  
Q2 2027:  4.67  
Q1 2027:  4.67  
Q4 2026:  4.68 
Units:
Percent,Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:
QuarterlyNatural Rate of Unemployment (LongTerm)
Customize data:
Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.
You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.
Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.
Need help? []
For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a  b.
Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, , *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses {(,)}, and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, ab, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.
Finally, you can change the units of your new series.
Natural Rate of Unemployment (LongTerm)
Customize data:
Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.
You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.
Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.
Need help? []
For example, invert an exchange rate by using formula 1/a, where “a” refers to the first FRED data series added to this line. Or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates, a and b, by using the formula a  b.
Use the assigned data series variables (a, b, c, etc.) together with operators (+, , *, /, ^, etc.), parentheses {(,)}, and constants (1, 1.5, 2, etc.) to create your own formula (e.g., 1/a, ab, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100). As noted above, you may add other data series to this line before entering a formula.
Finally, you can change the units of your new series.
Add data series to graph:
Data in this graph are copyrighted. Please review the copyright information in the series notes before sharing.
Title  Release Dates  


Natural Rate of Unemployment  20110202  20120130 
Natural Rate of Unemployment (LongTerm)  20120131  20170629 
Source  


U.S. Congressional Budget Office  20110202  20170629 
Release  


Budget and Economic Outlook  20110202  20170629 
Units  


Percent  20110202  20170629 
Frequency  


Quarterly  20110202  20170629 
Seasonal Adjustment  


Not Seasonally Adjusted  20110202  20170629 
Notes  


The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the longterm natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the shortterm natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The shortterm natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The shortterm natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

20120131  20170629 
Confirm Delete
Are you sure you want to remove this series from the graph? This can not be undone.