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Home > Releases > Budget and Economic Outlook > Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) (NROU)

Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) (NROU)

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Range: 1yr 5yrs 10yrs Max Log Scale: Left
Units:  Levels | Chg. | Chg. from Yr. Ago | % Chg. | % Chg. from Yr. Ago | Comp. Annual Rate of Chg. | Cont. Comp. Rate of Chg. | Cont. Comp. Annual Rate of Chg.
Notes: Growth Rate Calculations | US recession dates
  Real-Time Period
Title Start     End     

Natural Rate of Unemployment 2011-02-02 2012-01-30
Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) 2012-01-31 Current

US. Congressional Budget Office 2011-02-02 Current

Budget and Economic Outlook 2011-02-02 Current

Percent 2011-02-02 Current

Quarterly 2011-02-02 Current
Seasonal Adjustment    

Not Seasonally Adjusted 2011-02-02 Current

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

2012-01-31 Current

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Population, Employment, & Labor Markets

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