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Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index (BBKQLEIX)

Observations

Q1 2026: -1.07330
Updated: Jun 29, 2026 7:32 AM CDT
Q1 2026:  -1.07330  
Q4 2025:  -0.09245  
Q3 2025:  0.81859  
Q2 2025:  0.57713  
Q1 2025:  0.17074  

Units:

Standard Deviations,
Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Quarterly

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Notes

Title Release Dates
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index 2021-04-01 2022-07-04
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index (DISCONTINUED) 2022-07-05 2022-08-28
Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index 2022-08-29 2026-06-29
 
Source    
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 2021-04-01 2022-08-28
Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center 2022-08-29 2026-06-29
 
Release    
Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes 2021-04-01 2026-06-29
 
Units    
Standard Deviations 2021-04-01 2026-06-29
 
Frequency    
Quarterly 2021-04-01 2026-06-29
 
Seasonal Adjustment    
Seasonally Adjusted 2021-04-01 2026-06-29
 
Notes    
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are a research project of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 500 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMLEIX) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMLEIX), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

2021-04-01 2022-08-28
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMLEIX (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMLEIX)), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series.

For more details, see also:
Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1

2022-08-29 2026-06-29

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Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center Leading Index Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Indexes Seasonally Adjusted Nation Public Domain: Citation Requested United States of America