Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index

Observations

Q4 2024: -0.42226

Updated: Mar 3, 2025 7:31 AM CST

Q4 2024:	-0.42226
Q3 2024:	-0.52732
Q2 2024:	-0.51504
Q1 2024:	-0.58791
Q4 2023:	-0.52164

Units:

Standard Deviations,

Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Quarterly

Notes

Title	Release Dates

Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index	2021-04-01	2022-07-04
Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index (DISCONTINUED)	2022-07-05	2022-08-28
Brave-Butters-Kelley Coincident Index	2022-08-29	2025-03-03

Source

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago	2021-04-01	2022-08-28
Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center	2022-08-29	2025-03-03

Release

Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes	2021-04-01	2025-03-03

Units

Standard Deviations	2021-04-01	2025-03-03

Frequency

Quarterly	2021-04-01	2025-03-03

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonally Adjusted	2021-04-01	2025-03-03

Notes

The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are a research project of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 500 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Coincident Index is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth. This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMCOIX) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMCOIX), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1	2021-04-01	2022-08-28
The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Coincident Index is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth. This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMCOIX (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMCOIX)), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1	2022-08-29	2025-03-03