| Name | ||
|---|---|---|
| An Arbitrage-Free Three-Factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-Term Yields and Distant-Horizon Forward Rates | ||
| Link | ||
| https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/three-factor-nominal-term-structure-model.htm | ||
| Source | ||
| Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) | ||
| Notes | ||
|
This research reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates since the middle of 2004 to a fall in term premiums. A variant of the model that incorporates inflation data indicates that about two-thirds of the decline in nominal term premiums owes to a fall in real term premiums, but estimated compensation for inflation risk has diminished as well.
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