Skip to main content

Observation:

Nov 2012: 0.22  
Updated: Feb 1, 2013

Units:

Percent,
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:

Monthly
1Y | 5Y | 10Y | Max
  EDIT BAR 1
(a) Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (RECPROUSM156N)
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.
(http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf)

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
to

Customize data:

Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.
Need help? []

Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:

  EDIT BAR 2
(a) Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (RECPROUSM156N)
Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.
(http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf)

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:
to

Customize data:

Write a custom formula to transform one or more series or combine two or more series.

You can begin by adding a series to combine with your existing series.

Now create a custom formula to combine or transform the series.
Need help? []

Finally, you can change the units of your new series.

Select a date that will equal 100 for your custom index:

ADD BAR

Add data series to graph:

FORMAT GRAPH
Log scale:



NOTES
Title Release Dates

2012-09-04 2016-12-01
 
Source    

2012-09-04 2016-12-01
2012-09-04 2016-12-01
 
Release    

2012-09-04 2016-12-01
 
Units    

2012-09-04 2016-12-01
 
Frequency    

2012-09-04 2016-12-01
 
Seasonal Adjustment    

2012-09-04 2016-12-01
 
Notes    

2012-09-04 2016-12-01
RELEASE TABLES





Retrieving data.
Updating graph.

Subscribe to our newsletter


Follow us

Twitter logo Google Plus logo Facebook logo YouTube logo LinkedIn logo
Back to Top
Top