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Home > Releases > Budget and Economic Outlook > Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) (NROU)

Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) (NROU)

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Units:  Levels | Chg. | Chg. from Yr. Ago | % Chg. | % Chg. from Yr. Ago | Comp. Annual Rate of Chg. | Cont. Comp. Rate of Chg. | Cont. Comp. Annual Rate of Chg.
Notes: Growth Rate Calculations | US recession dates
  Real-Time Period
Title Start     End     

Natural Rate of Unemployment 2011-02-02 2012-01-30
Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term) 2012-01-31 Current
 
Source    

US. Congressional Budget Office 2011-02-02 Current
 
Release    

Budget and Economic Outlook 2011-02-02 Current
 
Units    

Percent 2011-02-02 Current
 
Frequency    

Quarterly 2011-02-02 Current
 
Seasonal Adjustment    

Not Seasonally Adjusted 2011-02-02 Current
 
Notes    

The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

2012-01-31 Current
 

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Population, Employment, & Labor Markets


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