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(a) Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (RECPROUSM156N)


Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.
(http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/cp_realtime_2_020907.pdf)

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
   

  

Integer Period Range: to copy to all
Create your own data transformation: [+]

Need help? [+]

Use a formula to modify and combine data series into a single line. For example, invert an exchange rate a by using formula 1/a, or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates a and b by using formula a - b.

Use the assigned data series variables above (e.g. a, b, ...) together with operators {+, -, *, /, ^}, braces {(,)}, and constants {e.g. 2, 1.5} to create your own formula {e.g. 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100}. The default formula 'a' displays only the first data series added to this line. You may also add data series to this line before entering a formula.



will be applied to formula result
Create segments for min, max, and average values: [+]







Color:



  
(a) Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, Percent, Not Seasonally Adjusted (RECPROUSM156N)


Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see:
Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, “A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.
(http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/cp_realtime_2_020907.pdf)

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 at http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm.

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
   

  

Integer Period Range: to copy to all
Create your own data transformation: [+]

Need help? [+]

Use a formula to modify and combine data series into a single line. For example, invert an exchange rate a by using formula 1/a, or calculate the spread between 2 interest rates a and b by using formula a - b.

Use the assigned data series variables above (e.g. a, b, ...) together with operators {+, -, *, /, ^}, braces {(,)}, and constants {e.g. 2, 1.5} to create your own formula {e.g. 1/a, a-b, (a+b)/2, (a/(a+b+c))*100}. The default formula 'a' displays only the first data series added to this line. You may also add data series to this line before entering a formula.



will be applied to formula result
Create segments for min, max, and average values: [+]



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